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Integrating Dynamic Measures in Community Supervision Risk Assessment
SESSION INFO
Monday, January 30, 2023
2:00 PM - 3:00 PM
Session Type: Workshop
An accurate and timely understanding of the risk of rearrest while on supervision promotes evidence-based practices, which can be used to improve client services and, consequently, criminal justice outcomes. Early actuarial risk assessment tools to predict rearrest featured static factors, such as criminal history. Recent tools use dynamic factors, but often include static factors (e.g., overall criminal history) that make changes to someone’s risk scores over the course of supervision unlikely. Further, many risk assessments treat risk the same throughout the course of supervision. This workshop presents findings from research to improve risk classification for individuals on community supervision in Georgia. Accuracy at predicting rearrest was improved by implementing time-specific models, using recent rather than lifetime criminal history, and incorporating dynamic measures of both protective and risk factors. Plans to incorporate these new models into Georgia’s case management system and to produce visualizations of model outputs will also be discussed.
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SESSION PRESENTERS
Dr. Christopher Inkpen
Research Sociologist & Demographer,
Dr. Christopher Inkpen is a quantitative social scientist in RTI’s Division for Applied Justice Research. His research focuses on risk assessment and the quantitative evaluation of pretrial diversion and reentry programs using inferential and machine learning methods.
Dr. Nicholas Powell
Director of Strategic Planning & Analysis, GA Department of Community Supervision
Dr. Nick Powell is the Strategic Planning & Analysis Director for the Georgia Department of Community Supervision. Dr. Powell studies the social context within which crime occurs, and researches and formulates strategies to improve criminal justice outcomes while reducing negative legal system consequences . Dr. Powell is also an Adjunct Professor at Georgia State University and has published on the intersection of officer well-being and supervisees with mental illness.
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